Shorouk Express
A generational divide in British politics is playing into Nigel Farage’s hands, as his party Reform UK tops the Techne UK tracker weekly poll for the first time this week.
Overall in the Techne poll Reform leads with 26 per cent (up 1), Labour second on 25 per cent (down 1), and the Tories trailing unchanged on 22 per cent. The Lib Dems are on 12 per cent (down 1) and Greens are unchanged on 7 per cent.
According to Electoral Calculus, if this was the result in a general election Reform would be the biggest party on 199 seats, with Labour on 183 and Tories on 145.
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More significantly, the findings reveal a generation split with Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980) and Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) on one side, and Millennials (1981 to 1996) and the newest young voters from Generation Z (1997 to 2012) on the other.
Voters aged 45 and over are now turning to Mr Farage’s party in greater numbers than Reform’s rivals, with the Tories in particular losing out. In the 45 to 54 category, Reform has 25 per cent to Labour’s 24 per cent and the Tories’ 22 per cent.
The lead grows in the 55 to 64 age category with Reform on 29, and Labour and the Tories both on 23. Among pensioners aged 65 and over Reform has 32 per cent, the Tories 26 per cent and Labour just 18 per cent.
But Reform is barely winning the support of voters aged under 45, with Labour easily topping those age groups.
Among voters aged 35 to 44, Labour leads with 29 per cent with the Tories and Reform both on 21 per cent. Among those aged 18 to 34 Labour has 36 per cent, Reform 20 per cent and Tories 17 per cent.
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It means Reform is appealing more to voters who are typically more likely to have a mortgage or own their home outright, with job security or a final salary pension.
But despite reports Reform was winning among younger people, Mr Farage’s message is struggling to pick up voters from so-called “generation rent” – under 45s who face much lower job security and are more likely to turn to Labour.
Techne UK, compared to other polls, has been less generous to Reform in its weighting calculation which is why this is the first week Mr Farage’s party has come top.
With pensioners in particular abandoning the Tories as a traditional part of their voter base and switching to Reform, Techne’s chief executive Michela Morizzo argued the survey of 1,639 voters this week was more of a reflection on how poorly Kemi Badenoch’s party is performing.
She said: “Our regular tracker poll tonight delivers hugely significant political news across Westminster and far beyond. For the first time ever in our weekly polling snapshot of the UK voting intention, our research findings give Nigel Farage’s Reform its very first overall lead.
“With the Conservatives staying stationary at 22 per cent of national vote share, Kemi Badenoch’s party continues to very much struggle when compared to Reform UK and Labour.
“Significantly this poll lead for Reform UK is not surprising, because it is clear from the data-picture that the Conservatives are facing a deep crisis. And where does this crisis come from? The public opinion is very cold towards the party but internal reasons play an important role for sure.
“At the same time, we have to consider how difficult is for any political party fighting against a surging positive wave as the one of Reform.”
