How immigration trends will change around Europe in 2026

If there’s been a defining issue of European politics in 2025 it has arguably been immigration. Even when the debate isn’t about immigration itself — on the economy, say, or pensions or foreign policy — migration seems to underpin it. Escalating rhetoric has shifted the debate rightward and affects all migrants, wherever they live and wherever they come from.

Anti-immigration parties are surging in the polls. In France, Germany and the UK, polls suggest the far-right could govern in the near-future. In Spain and Sweden they may form key components of future coalitions. 

But in 2025 tough talk on borders and the conflation of illegal and legal migration is no longer reserved for the far-right. Incumbent centrist governments in Denmark and the UK have made this clear by paring back citizenship and residency rights, while opposition parties are increasingly performative on immigration, saying what they think electorates (or the media) want to hear. 

But how will immigration trends around Europe change in 2026?

According to the experts, it could be much of the same.

Dr. Marta Lorimer, Lecturer in Politics at Cardiff University says “I expect we’ll see a continued crackdown on rules and attempts at limiting migration [and] limiting the rights of migrants.

“EU countries and the EU itself look set to continue following restrictive migration policies, at least nominally, even when this clashes with their economic interests,” she told The Local.

Next year will also see a raft of elections, both national and regional, that could shape debate and have a knock-on effect on migration policy and debate across the continent.

Lorimer feels Hungary and Denmark in particular could be bellwethers for bloc-wide immigration politics in 2026.

“The Hungarian election will be one to watch. We can expect Orbán to ramp up his anti-migrant and anti-EU discourse even further in a bid to keep power. Denmark also has an election, and that one will be interesting to follow; the Danish left-wing government has adopted some of the bloc’s most extreme anti-migration policies so it will be interesting to see how well they fare.”

Danish PM Mette Frederiksen’s own colleagues have criticised her “harsh” immigration policies, and if poor recent local elections results are anything to go by, that hardline approach (something copied by the Labour government in the UK) might not pay off in the long-run.

Voters also head to the polls next year in Portugal, where far-right Chega is polling at 24 percent, and there are Senate and important local elections in France, where Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National are looming in the polls. The far-right will also be hoping for another French government collapse and possibly more parliamentary elections, which they would expect to be perform well in.

Germany will also see key state votes in Berlin, Baden-Württemberg and Saxony-Anhalt, among others. Polls indicate that the anti-immigration AfD has become a significant electoral force, with support reaching between 27-38 percent in some regions, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU’s rightward shift on immigration is already costing the party votes.

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In Sweden, where the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) hold influence over the government coalition, voters go to the polls on September 13th, 2026.

Sweden’s government already wants to retroactively remove residency from over 100,000 people and is tightening citizenship rules. The Local Sweden’s Deputy Editor Becky Waterton has written that “if the right-wing block are re-elected then it’s likely that the anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats would demand minister posts and would be able to tighten up Swedish migration policy even further.”

On a policy level, Sweden will impose several immigration changes in 2026. Re-emigration grants come in from January 1st and stricter rules for citizenship come in on June 1st. If a proposed bill is passed by parliament, the time foreigners need to live in Sweden to become eligible for citizenship will increase from 5 to 8 years for most foreigners. 

Switzerland will see an explicitly anti-immigration measure go to a vote in 2026. The hard-right Swiss People’s Party (SVP) recently raised eyebrows with an idea to cap the population at 10 million people. Currently, the country’s population stands at just over 9 million, including nearly 2.5 million foreigners.

Italy is an interesting case study that exemplifies demographic and economic tensions underlying migration policy across the continent. Put simply, the reality is that while mainstream politics want less migration, economics demands more migrant workers.

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Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s has governed since 2022 but some use her as an example of right-wing populists campaigning at the extremes and moving to the political centre in government. Notably, despite hardline anti-immigration stances on political and rhetorical levels, in policy terms Italy will issue 500,000 visas for non-EU workers from 2026. 

Lorimer suspects that economic reality could force Meloni to continue this balancing act in 2026: “The reality of Italy is that of a declining country. Fertility rates are low, and Italian people of working age are migrating in large numbers towards countries where they can get better work opportunities. However, the Italian economy still needs workers — if they’re not going to come from Italy, they’ll have to come from abroad.”

And then there’s the EU.

Martin Ruhs, Professor of Migration Studies at the Migration Policy Centre of the European University Institute EUI in Florence, sees 2026 as a year that might challenge EU-wide policy making.

“Immigration will almost certainly stay high on the political agenda of the European Union and its Member States,” he tells The Local.

“The EU is under pressure to start implementing its recently adopted new ‘Pact on Migration and Asylum’. Considerable opposition and disagreements have already been expressed by a number of Member States and it will be interesting to see how these challenges to common EU policy-making will be overcome.”

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The look around Europe

You can read a full breakdown of all the immigration changes in Sweden in 2026 here.

John Lichfield has written that even if the French far-right do badly in local elections, it doesn’t mean they can’t win in 2027.

Read our breakdown of all the other big changes in France in 2026 here, including the government’s proposal to hike visa and residency card fees.

This week in Germany the team analysed the pushback to AfD as the far-right party calls for more ‘remigration’. 

Italy’s proposed 2026 budget bill could impact immigrants in a number of ways, notably a hike to the flat tax for wealthy foreign residents.

And finally, the seemingly never-ending scandal and instability of Spanish politics means a snap election is always possible, especially in 2026. Polls suggest the Spanish right would win, likely in coalition with far-right Vox. Here are the 10 migration laws that will impact foreigners if the opposition PP reaches power.