Viasna’s Kanstantsin Staradubets: ‘The less people speak and know about the situation in Belarus, the more Lukashenka is winning’

The human rights activist lives in exile in Lithuania, like 60,000 of his fellow Belarusians. We met him on one of his recent visits to Brussels, where he often represents Viasna, the largest human rights centre in Belarus, and the Belarusian Popular Front founder and 2022 Nobel Peace Prize co-laureate Ales Bialiatski, currently imprisoned in Belarus.

Voxeurop: What is Viasna and what does it do?

Kanstantsin Staradubets: In a nutshell we provide free legal advice to the victims of human rights violations and also other types of assistance: humanitarian assistance and practical assistance, and we collect information about human rights violation and expose them on our website and social media accounts, and we share information with pro-democratic media based in safe places in exile.

We do have our sources on the ground in Belarus. They collect information on what is happening across the country, not only in Minsk or in the major cities, because the repression affects literally every town and city. Actually, after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine started in February 2022, the majority of victims of human rights violations were in the Southern regions. It’s where people saw with their own eyes the Russian military moving towards Ukraine; they could not remain silent, and shared that information with human rights defenders and the independent media. Some of them were arrested, beaten, tortured, and sentenced for up to 23 years for “anti-war propaganda” or even 25 years for “terrorism”.

How do you manage to provide humanitarian assistance or legal advice within Belarus and the carceral system?

It is quite risky, so I cannot get into much detail, but the very nature of the country’s prison system and the system of criminal prosecution limits the possibility of contacting and visiting those arrested or serving prison sentences. This means that in real life only their family members can do it. So our main task is to ensure that the family members and the political prisoners receive this assistance so that they can share it with their loved ones. It is of course risky for them, and there are many cases in which political prisoners’ family members have been arrested for criticizing the authorities.

Ales Bialiatski, who is now 62, is in prison since 2021, first for “tax evasion”, then, in March 2023, he has been sentenced to ten years for “cash smuggling” as well as “financing group actions that grossly violated public order” – all charges that human rights organisations view as fabricated in order to silence him and his movement after he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. What is he doing and what is his state of mind ? 

Unfortunately he cannot do any human rights work well while in detention. Moreover he is assigned to perform unpaid manual work six days a week so he doesn’t actually have a lot of free time. We do not receive much information from him because the prison authorities and many other government agencies purposefully block information coming from inside the prison and they block letters coming inside. So the prisoners remain in this vacuum of not knowing even what is going on in their own country. 

They’re not allowed to get news from the outside. Just imagine that when the all-out invasion of Ukraine started, many prisoners learned it only weeks later, when the state television began airing some propaganda stories about it, or disputing the fact that some missiles were launched from Belarusian territory.

Bialitski is not in complete isolation, like many other well-known political prisoners. He can still receive some letters from his wife and he can send letters but he does not get any news because prisoners are not allowed to write or read anything political or economical in the letters. It is strictly forbidden. They can only talk about what they do in everyday life without criticizing the authorities of course or their conditions as prisoners. 

Did the Nobel prize change anything to his detention conditions? 

We cannot be sure about that, but we can see that at least he is not completely incommunicado, and that he’s alive at least. We hope that this award increased the cost of this hostage for Alexander Lukashenka’s regime; that he will be valued as a token for a peaceful bargaining in the future. That’s what Lukashanka did on many occasions before so we expect that he’s going to repeat this again.

He doesn’t complain; his spirit is high and he says he’s okay and that we should carry on. He understands that his example, as a role model, is inspiring. He just cannot be in a bad mood despite the circumstances.

Viasna operates from exile from Vilnius, in Lithuania, where the government in exile of the president-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is also settled. Do you work with them?

Yes of course. We do work together with Tsikhanouskaya’s office on topics that we share, like supporting political prisoners and their families, as well as the former ones. In this case, we coordinate our activities.

How are the Lithuanian authorities and the Lithuanian people dealing with the Belarusian community in exile, after almost five years since the massive arrival of political refugees?

They continue supporting us both in terms of legalization and visas and many other things that are just basic necessities for our survival as an organisation. Of course, after the war started, there was some disapproval for the Belarusians who were seeking refuge, because Belarus is an ally of the aggressor, but it is not the government’s policy. A poll published in late 2023 by the newspaper Delfi showed that only 5% of Lithuanians support welcoming Belarussians in Lithuania. It was a kind of shock to us, because we do not sense it when we relate to the authorities, nor do we feel any hostility from the people. 

How many Belarusians are in exile in Lithuania?

There are no official figures, but the most credible ones say at least 60,000, and most of them are in Vilnius, which is a quite small city – it has a bit more than 600,000 inhabitants, in a country that has only 2.8 million inhabitants. Of course, this has had an impact on society, especially on rents, which have soared, but also positively, as most of those people found a job and pay taxes. Many of the major Belarusian IT companies relocated to Lithuania after 2020.

What are the communication channels still existing between Western countries and the Belarusian regime? 

The only communication channels are through the Western countries’ embassies in Minsk, who can relate to the Belarusian ministry of Foreign affairs.

Belarus has suffered a massive brain drain in the last years, with people fleeing not only for political but also for economical reasons. Did the regime apply any specific policy to bring back some of the most valuable workers?

The purpose of the restrictions the government recently introduced on passports’ renewal [since September 2023, Belarusian passports cannot be renewed any more in consulates abroad, but only in offices in Belarus] is to force economic rather than political exiles to return to Belarus to contribute to the economy, which is not performing well. Maybe some IT workers might choose to return. But for us political and human rights activists this is not an option. Only a regime change will have us coming back. But I don’t expect this change to come through the upcoming elections. It’s more likely like it will come with the victory of Ukraine in its war against Russia. This can have several consequences: even if Vladimir Putin is still in power, but weakened, Lukashenka might feel that it’s safer for him to switch sides, as he did in many occasions, and begin negotiating with the West, using the political prisoners as a bargain token to get sanction lifted, for example.

Only a regime change will have us exiles coming back. But I don’t expect this change to come through the upcoming elections. It’s more likely like it will come with the victory of Ukraine in its war against Russia

What is Belarusian’s people support for Russia’s invasion?

Actually, both Putin and Lukashenka vouch for minimal military support to Russia’s so-called “Special military operation” in Ukraine, because it is very unpopular among the Belarusian public. A bigger involvement of the Belarusian army would bring discontent among the population, thus some potential unrest and instability, which may get out of control of Lukashenka; and this is definitely something Putin does not want. Furthermore, the Belarusian army is small, ill-prepared, ill-experienced and ill-equipped. 

Is Belarusian society ready for a change in the regime, or has Lukashenka managed to completely eradicate civil society?

I believe that there is a minimum necessary social basis for that. There are many people who said “no” to Russia and “yes” to a European future. This has not changed since 2020 rigged elections. We also believe in the positive effect of the civil society that we can be of use of help during this transformation; and of course the role of the political opposition is crucial. The success of this transition depends on how effective the democratic forces will be during this period. We don’t know what these forces will look like then, but from what we see today, they totally abide by human rights values and democracy. There is no pro-Russian sentiment, nor even a debate about Russia being an ally in Belarus’ future. This should be a guarantee of a pro-European Belarus.

Is there a generation gap between those who support Lukashenka’s regime and its opponents? 

Yes, absolutely, and it is very so apparent. The younger generation are mostly pro-European they know what human rights signifies why they are important. The younger generation are not that much exposed to government propaganda because they don’t watch television. Their main sources of information are social media and the internet, and you cannot block it completely and then you can find ways to read independent websites inside Belarus. Even older people can know how to watch YouTube and use a VPN. 

Do you plan to monitor the 26 January presidential elections, like you did with the previous ones and last year’s general elections? What do you expect from them?

Like in the previous elections, we assume that the vote will be rigged and that the government will announce a massive turnout – somewhere around 80% of the eligible voters – and that Lukashenka will be re-elected with more than 80% of votes. As in the past, we expect the government to force those whose jobs depend on the state – that is 70% of the active population – to go to the polls. Of course that is not verifiable, as polling stations do not file reports on voting, and independent international organisations, like the OSCE, will not be allowed to monitor the vote. We will observe the election from outside, through monitoring social media conversations and on the ground citizen observation and reports through protected channels. 

I’d like to stress one again that the conditions of imprisoned people in Belarus are often underestimated. For many prisoners, because they had principles, those prison sentences are death sentences.

What do you expect from the EU ?

Two things: first is support for the civil Society and the political opposition. Financial support for civil society is critical for helping the thousands of people who have been, are and are expected to be victims of repression.

Secondly, we want more visibility for Belarus and what is happening there. The less people speak and know about the situation there, the more Lukashenka is winning, and people in Belarus are being forgotten, and that allows the regime to be even more repressive.

We also want the Belarusian regime to be accountable, and to be prosecuted for crimes against humanity committed in Belarus by the International Criminal Court (ICC). There are several European countries – like Lithuania or Poland – which could prosecute Belarusian officials for crimes against humanity under the universal jurisdiction or within the ICC. We need at least a couple of victories in such universal jurisdiction cases to encourage Belarusian who are fighting for justice to speak out. There already are a few cases brought up on which brave and capable local lawyers are working, and we need more of them in order to provide other victims the courage to reach out to courts, and prosecutors to move on.