Russian forces defeated in Saharan stronghold after wave of attacks

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Russian forces have withdrawn from a stronghold in northern Mali as the country’s Moscow-backed regime reels from a series of co-ordinated assaults that killed the defence minister and left the ruling military junta shaken.

Mali, which turned to Russia for military assistance after a coup five years ago, has been grappling with a deepening security crisis for over a decade. In 2023, Russian and Malian forces scored a major victory in retaking Kidal, a symbolically important city near the desert frontier with Algeria.

But the city, which had previously been the unofficial capital for ethnic Tuareg separatists, fell this weekend to the secessionist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), a powerful al-Qaeda affiliate. 

The unprecedented offensive on cities across Mali, including against the capital Bamako and the main military command centre at Kati, has left the regime shaken and decapitated its military leadership. 

Sadio Camara, the minister of defence who had been an influential pro-Russian voice, was injured in an attack on his residence and later died from his wounds. Modibo Koné, who runs the domestic intelligence service, was also reported by some international media to have been killed, although there was no formal confirmation of his death.

President Assimi Goïta has not been seen publicly since the attacks on Saturday. It is unclear if he will continue at the helm of the military regime, said Andrew Lebovich, a research fellow at the Clingendael Institute.

“There is pressure and there are discussions right now about whether to change the leadership,” said Lebovich, adding that rumours were swirling as to his whereabouts. “This is a watershed moment.”

Lebovich said questions would probably be asked in Bamako about the value of continuing to deal with Moscow. “They are paying a lot of money for the Russian presence,” Lebovich said. “If this is the result: is it still a good investment?” 

Bamako turned to Russia after severing ties with France, whose soldiers had been present in Mali since 2013, following the military coup in 2021. Paris withdrew its forces from Mali in 2022.

The withdrawal from Kidal was confirmed on Monday by Africa Corps, a paramilitary organisation run by the Russian defence ministry.

FLA spokesperson Mohamed Elmaouloud Ramadane said on Sunday that a withdrawal agreement had been struck with the besieged Russian and Malian forces. Some Malian forces in Kidal appear to have been taken prisoner, said Wassim Nasr, a senior research fellow at The Soufan Center think-tank. 

“This is more proof that the Russians are ineffective and that they are able to cut deals,” said Nasr, adding that the withdrawal would damage their reputation in Bamako. 

The co-ordination between JNIM and the FLA, which had previously clashed, marks a major shift and deepens the mammoth task that Moscow and Bamako will face in regaining lost ground, analysts said. 

“This is their worst nightmare,” said Nasr. “They were previously able to concentrate on one or the other, now . . . they will have to handle them both at the same time.” 

There are signs Russia may be withdrawing from other spots in the remote Saharan reaches of northern Mali, said Justyna Gudzowska, at the monitoring organisation The Sentry.

Gudzowska said her sources in Kidal had indicated that Africa Corps was pulling back from Aguelhok and Tessalit, two remote desert outposts near Algeria that would have been left isolated, as well as from Labbezanga and Tessit on the frontier with Niger. 

Both the FLA and JNIM called on Moscow to step aside in their battle with Bamako. JNIM called on Russian forces to stand down in exchange for not targeting them and in the interests of building “a balanced and effective future relationship”. 

Cartography by Chira Llarena