Whereas many U.S. subnational actors have reciprocated PRC efforts to reconnect, a rising variety of governors and state legislators have been proposing and enacting an unprecedented quantity of substantive measures geared toward mitigating dangers from PRC conduct, predominantly citing safety issues as justification, to fill a perceived coverage vacuum.
This evaluation sequence examines these newest efforts by presenting notable traits from three new datasets – 167 China-related excerpts recognized in 941 state of the state addresses delivered by U.S. governors from 2005 to 2024, in addition to 334 China-related measures launched in 50 U.S. state legislatures in 2023 and over 270 China-related measures proposed in 43 U.S. state legislatures in 2024, systematically coded throughout 12 variables (together with month launched; standing; sponsor partisanship; originating chamber passage vote partisanship; reverse chamber passage vote partisanship; impactfulness; sentiment; China specificity; major topic, major problem space(s), major subject(s) addressed; and quantity per state). The information, mixed with illustrative examples of China-related marketing campaign rhetoric employed by candidates in 13 U.S. gubernatorial races from 2022 to 2024 and discussions of dynamics behind these measures, reminiscent of drivers, correlations with federal actions, bilateral occasions, and amongst states, reveals the altering state of U.S. state authorities views towards China.
From 2005 to 2019, U.S. governors largely portrayed China favorably of their state of the state addresses, focusing totally on financial partnerships and academic exchanges. They highlighted new commerce workplaces, celebrated funding and export offers – for instance, Illinois’ Pat Quinn (D) claimed in 2012: “Illinois farmers are feeding China’s new center class” – and acknowledged the significance of Chinese language language studying alternatives. Some, reminiscent of California’s Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and Hawaii’s Linda Lingle (R), expressed optimism about China’s rise as a world energy.
Unfavorable mentions of China and/or the Chinese language Communist Get together started showing prominently in 2022, when Republican governors of 5 states – Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Mississippi, and Tennessee – made such references whereas discussing abortion, provide chain safety, cybersecurity, and mental property points. For instance, Tate Reeves (R) of Mississippi stated: “There isn’t a excuse for America’s abortion legal guidelines to be nearer to the Chinese language communists than the remainder of the Western world.”
In 2023, 9 governors – eight Republicans from Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, Virginia, Texas, South Dakota, and one Democrat from Michigan – referenced China, the Chinese language Communist Get together, and/or the CCP whereas discussing provide chain safety, fentanyl, overseas affect, overseas land purchases, and TikTok. Amongst them, Kristi Noem (R) of South Dakota stated that her govt order banning TikTok “started an vital motion” adopted by over 20 states and Congress. She additionally highlighted present efforts to advance laws that will set up the Committee on Overseas Funding in the US – South Dakota and prohibit PRC buy of state agricultural land, noting, “Different states are already taking a look at our laws with plans to duplicate it.” Invoice Lee (R) of Tennessee pressured the significance for the state “to have a voice in nationwide safety when the security of Tennesseans is at stake.”
In 2024, 11 governors – together with eight Republicans from Florida, Idaho, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, in addition to three Democrats from New Jersey, Michigan, and Connecticut – talked about China and/or the Chinese language Communist Get together of their addresses. Some famous China-related accomplishments from the 2023 legislative session, some laid out 2024’s legislative agendas to counter the PRC, whereas others referenced China when discussing TikTok, overseas land purchases, provide chain safety, and AI improvement. For instance, Kim Reynolds (R) of Iowa stated: “Iowa has a number of the strongest legal guidelines within the nation on overseas possession of land – in reality, different states have appeared to us as a mannequin for their very own insurance policies. However as China’s risk adapts, our legal guidelines ought to too.”
Notably, for the primary time, Arizona governor Katie Hobbs (D) referenced Taiwan 13 instances, together with highlighting her assembly with Taiwan’s then-President Tsai Ing-wen and the opening of the Arizona-Taiwan Commerce and Funding Workplace, throughout her Worldwide State of the State handle delivered in March 2024, which positioned vital emphasis on semiconductor improvement. She didn’t point out China in her remarks.
Simply as China started to determine extra prominently – and negatively – in state of the state handle, the “China risk” gained salience in U.S. gubernatorial marketing campaign rhetoric from 2022 to 2024.
Through the 2022 midterm gubernatorial elections, whereas China was not among the many prime points voters had been involved about, candidates in a minimum of six states (together with Florida, Arizona, Nebraska, New York, Michigan, and Georgia) included China-related matters reminiscent of land purchases, overseas affect, fentanyl, and the spy balloon incident, into their marketing campaign narratives.
For instance, in Georgia, incumbent Brian Kemp (R) accused MAGA Republican David Perdue of outsourcing state jobs to China in a marketing campaign advert launched lower than two months earlier than the GOP major. Subsequently in the course of the rematch, Democrat Stacey Abrams criticized Kemp for permitting PRC farmland purchases and neglecting WeChat-related data safety issues. Abrams emphasised these speaking factors in a number of boards, together with an unique interview with Fox Information Digital, a social media publish, and their first gubernatorial debate. College of Georgia political scientist Audrey Haynes described Abrams’ rhetoric as an enchantment to MAGA-leaning rural voters.
Kemp’s marketing campaign didn’t immediately reply however as an alternative highlighted Georgia’s financial progress below his management. Kemp additionally cited SB 346, a invoice he signed in Could 2022 that prohibits state contracts with Chinese language state-owned corporations, as proof of his help for “the courageous folks” of Taiwan and stance in opposition to the CCP.
Through the 2023 gubernatorial elections in Louisiana, Kentucky, and Mississippi, China-related points had been highlighted within the latter two states. Mississippi Republican incumbent Tate Reeves criticized Democratic challenger Brandon Presley for accepting $10,000 in marketing campaign donations from a Chinese language enterprise govt. In April 2023, whereas signing two payments prohibiting acquisition of unmanned plane manufactured by overseas entities (together with the PRC) and proscribing prohibited applied sciences from state networks, he known as the CCP “an existential risk” to People.
That rhetoric modified in 2024, when Reeves requested the state legislature applicable $350 million in incentives for the development of a $1.9 billion EV battery plant, regardless of 10 % possession by what the Mississippi Improvement Authority’s director described as “a revered Chinese language firm.”
Within the lead-up to the November 2024 gubernatorial elections held in 11 states, Republican candidates in 5 states (Indiana, North Carolina, Montana, Utah, and Missouri) both highlighted China-related points of their ads, attacked opponents for his or her stances on China-related points, or in any other case talked about China throughout their actions on the marketing campaign path.
For instance, in Indiana, three of the GOP candidates prioritized “combating China” in their platforms, specializing in overseas land possession, mental property safety, fentanyl, TikTok, and semiconductor improvement. Native media criticized them for emphasizing federal speaking factors over state-specific points. As the first approached, and amid revelations in regards to the Indiana Financial Improvement Company being in latest discussions with quite a few Chinese language corporations seeking to buy or lease state land, robust rhetoric in opposition to the PRC persevered, with two out of six candidates mentioning China whereas outlining agendas addressing environmental points.
The shift in U.S. governors’ rhetoric mirrors broader adjustments in state-level approaches towards China-related points, as evidenced partly by the amount and scope of measures launched throughout state legislatures in 2023 and 2024. That would be the focus of the subsequent articles within the sequence..
Sourcing observe
Governors’ state of the state addresses delivered in 2005 and 2006 had been recognized from data compiled by Schooling Fee of the States and supplemental analysis throughout particular person states. Addresses delivered from 2007 to 2022 had been recognized from data compiled by Ballotpedia and supplemental analysis. A replica of Nebraska’s 2022 handle, which isn’t publicly obtainable on-line, was obtained via a file request to the Nebraska State Historic Society. Addresses delivered in 2023 and 2024 had been recognized from data compiled by the Nationwide Governors Affiliation and supplemental analysis.
Acknowledgements
This analysis was performed with help from the Overseas Coverage Analysis Institute’s Templeton Fellowship. I’m grateful to Prof. Jacques deLisle, Dr. Kyle Jaros, Dr. Sara Newland, Dr. Matthew Erie, Dr. Christopher Carothers, Prof. Ryan Scoville, Connor Fiddler, and an nameless reviewer for his or her suggestions in the course of the analysis course of and/or on earlier drafts. All errors are my very own.
